Miami-Dade County
Economic Impact ReportCondado de Miami-Dade
Informe de Impacto Económico

Introduction and Decision SummaryIntroducción y Resumen de Decisión

§1.1 — What This Report MeasuresQué Mide Este Informe

This report quantifies the fiscal, economic, and environmental delta between two states: State A (current system — MSW to contracted landfills at $92.78/ton, no thermal disposal, converging landfill capacity) and State B (Circular Advantage deployment — ACM facility receiving county MSW at $88.00/ton TMC Fee under a 30-year COA, with Circular Royalty payments beginning Month 14). Neither state is re-diagnosed here. State A values originate in the Feedstock System Assessment. State B values originate exclusively in the Proposal EIR Input Block.

§1.2 — Decision Summary TableTabla de Resumen de Decisión

§1.3 — Fiscal vs. Regional Economic SeparationSeparación Fiscal vs. Económica Regional

State A Baseline — Current SystemLínea Base Estado A — Sistema Actual

§2.1 — Feedstock Volume and DispositionVolumen y Disposición de Materiales

§2.2 — State A Cost StructureEstructura de Costos Estado A

§2.3 — State A Cost TrajectoryTrayectoria de Costos Estado A

Three documented escalation mechanisms operate simultaneously in State A: (1) Gate rate escalation — the FPL/NextEra WTE proposal prices a forward rate of $105/ton +2.5%/yr for 40 years, which would become the county's cost floor upon WTE contract execution. (2) Capacity constraint premium — South Dade Landfill reaches capacity ~2029; North Dade (Class III) is already constrained; full dependency shifts to private contracted landfills at undisclosed escalating rates. (3) Infrastructure replacement capital — $556M for new county landfill or $1.5B–$1.9B for WTE, ultimately embedded in system per-ton costs.

§2.4 — State A Environmental and Structural Position

State A generates approximately 827,000 tCO₂e/year from landfilling 4,110 TPD of MSW (ESTIMATED — methane generation basis). No WTE facility is operational; zero energy-from-waste recovery exists. WASD biosolids are trucked to North Florida — a significant embedded transportation emissions burden. South Dade Landfill sits adjacent to Biscayne Bay; closure ~2029 creates leachate management obligations. No alternative technology pathway exists in State A without a new procurement commitment.El Estado A genera aproximadamente 827,000 tCO₂e/año del relleno de 4,110 TPD

State B Deployment BaselineLínea Base de Despliegue Estado B

§3.1 — Inherited Flags (State B)

All State B values originate in the Proposal EIR Input Block. No values in this section were independently derived. TMC Fee ($88.00/ton) is ESTIMATED anchored to VERIFIED FWDC. Phase configuration (500/2,000/6,000 TPD) uses Carbotura standard module math. Royalty formula is locked. Timeline is Carbotura standard from T0 = Q2 2026.

§3.2 — Deployment Configuration

§3.3 — Economic Terms

§3.4 — Residual Obligations

All residual material handling, process ash disposal, and environmental compliance at the ACM facility are Carbotura's operational responsibility under the BOO structure. The County has no residual stream liability. The County's obligations are limited to: (1) delivering contracted feedstock volumes, (2) paying the TMC Fee per ton delivered, and (3) site access and permitting cooperation.

§3.5 — Timeline Anchoring

T0 = Q2 2026 (Carbotura standard, no project-specific T0 confirmed). Phase Initial COD: Q2 2028. First Circular Royalty payment: Q3 2029 (13 months after Phase Initial COD). All dates are on Carbotura standard deployment schedule and subject to revision upon Feasibility Study completion.

§3.6 — Phase Delta Map

The map below shows the State A infrastructure (current system — landfills, transfer stations, WWTPs marked in steel/grey tones) against the State B ACM Priority 1 candidate site (Emerald square — P1 West Dade Industrial Corridor).

Delta AnalysisAnálisis Delta

§4.1 — Three Delta Components

1. Gross cost displacement: The difference between the State A FWDC ($92.78/ton) and the State B TMC Fee ($88.00/ton) = $4.78/ton. This is a verified financial delta — FWDC is published government data; TMC Fee is ESTIMATED anchored to that data. Gross cost displacement applies from Phase Initial COD (Q2 2028). At Phase Initial (500 TPD): $872,350/year.
2. Circular Royalty cash flow: Cash payments from Carbotura to Miami-Dade County beginning Month 14 (Q3 2029). Year 2 rate: $105.60/ton on 182,500 TPY = $19.27M/year. Royalty exceeds TMC Fee on a per-ton basis from Month 14. Net position Year 2: +$15.40/ton / +$2.81M/year (Phase Initial).
3. Residual obligation: Zero — all ACM residual material handling is Carbotura's operational responsibility under the BOO structure. The County has no residual stream cost exposure in State B.

§4.2 — Phase-by-Phase Comparative Table

§4.4 — 30-Year Gross Cost Displacement (Phase Initial 500 TPD)

§4.5 — 30-Year Circular Royalty Table (Phase Initial 500 TPD)

§4.5 — State B Fiscal Position — Three Gross Items, Years 1–20Posición Fiscal Estado B — Tres Elementos Brutos, Años 1–20

Same three independent gross datasets as the Proposal chart — using identical Registry values. State A comparison baseline is the FWDC (avoided disposal cost). Year 1 shows cost-only; royalty begins Month 14.Los mismos tres conjuntos de datos brutos independientes que el gráfico de la Propuesta — usando valores idénticos del registro. La línea base de comparación del Estado A es el CFRD. El Año 1 muestra solo costos; la regalía comienza en el Mes 14.

Phase Cost Comparison — State A vs. State B (Year 1)

Chart — State A (Steel) vs. State B (Emerald) Year 1 TMC obligations by phase | Source: FWDC VERIFIED · TMC Fee ESTIMATED · All ESTIMATED except FWDC comparator

System-Level ImpactImpacto a Nivel del Sistema

§5.1 — Employment DeltaDelta de Empleo

§5.2 — Environmental Delta

§5.3 — PFAS Structural Delta

State A routes PFAS-bearing MSW and biosolids to landfills and long-haul disposal — generating PFAS leachate risk at South Dade Landfill (adjacent to Biscayne Bay) and transportation exposure through North Florida trucking. State B routes PFAS-bearing streams through the ACM process, which is designed to process PFAS-contaminated feedstocks. Regulatory exposure under evolving FDEP/EPA PFAS rules shifts from County liability to Carbotura's operational compliance responsibility under the BOO structure.

§5.4 — No-Fallback Analysis

If no ACM engagement is initiated, State A has two possible trajectories: (1) WTE contract executed at $105/ton +2.5%/yr for 40 years — locking the county's per-ton cost trajectory with no competitive alternative. (2) No WTE contract executed — increasing dependency on private contracted landfills at undisclosed escalating rates as county-owned capacity (South Dade ~2029, North Dade already constrained) is exhausted. Neither trajectory includes a Circular Royalty return mechanism. Neither trajectory involves zero county capex — both require substantial capital for new facilities or capacity expansion. There is no cost-ceiling alternative in State A.

Risk and SensitivityRiesgo y Sensibilidad

§6.1 — Risk Register

§6.2 — Feedstock Variability ±20%

§6.3 — FWDC Sensitivity — Sign-Change Threshold

The TMC Fee of $88.00/ton delivers a gross cost saving whenever FWDC > $88.00/ton. The current FWDC is $92.78/ton — $4.78 above the TMC Fee. The sign-change threshold for gross cost displacement is FWDC = $88.00/ton. For the net county fiscal position (royalty − TMC Fee) to turn negative, the Royalty/ton would have to fall below TMC/ton — which requires the royalty rate to decline below 100% of TMC Fee. The royalty rate starts at 120% and escalates +1pp/year; it never falls below 100% under the locked formula. The net fiscal position is positive from Month 14 under all scenarios where FWDC ≥ $80.00/ton.

§6.4 — Royalty Escalator Sensitivity

§6.5 — Timeline Slippage

A 6-month T0 delay (T0 = Q4 2026 instead of Q2 2026) shifts Phase Initial COD to Q4 2028 and first royalty payment to Q4 2029. The 30-year fiscal profile is unchanged — the calendar shifts but the economics are identical. The material risk from timeline slippage is the WTE contract award — if awarded before Feasibility Study authorization, the ACM option is foreclosed regardless of T0. The decision risk is procurement timing, not construction timing.

Decision Window AnalysisAnálisis de la Ventana de Decisión

§7.1 — Binding Constraints

1. WTE procurement award (primary — Q1–Q2 2026): Miami-Dade BCC December 2025 resolution directed county mayor to continue negotiations with FCC and FPL/NextEra consortia. A January 16, 2026 vote was postponed; the next BCC meeting is the likely decision point. Once executed, this contract locks the primary MSW disposal pathway for 25–40 years.
2. South Dade Landfill capacity (~2029): As Cell 4 fills and Cell 5 approaches capacity, the county's only owned Class I landfill closes. This eliminates the primary cost-competitive State A alternative and increases dependence on private contracted landfills at undisclosed rates.
3. Florida solid waste concurrency requirement: The county must demonstrate disposal capacity before issuing development permits. The capacity gap created by the 2023 RRF closure has already created institutional pressure for a long-term commitment.

§7.2 — Decision Window Table

§7.3 — Irreversibility Mechanism

§7.4 — Optionality Matrix

Net Effects SummaryResumen de Efectos Netos

No new figures are introduced in this section. All values trace to preceding sections.

§8.1 — Fiscal Net Effects

§8.2 — Regional Economic Net Effects

Phase Initial: ~175 direct FTE / ~280 indirect jobs / ~$140M/yr economic impact (all ESTIMATED). Phase Expanded: ~1,750 direct FTE / ~2,800 indirect jobs / ~$1.6B/yr economic impact (all ESTIMATED). State A generates no equivalent economic activity — the county's current disposal system routes waste and cost to private out-of-county operators.

§8.3 — Environmental Net Effects

Phase Initial: ~315,000 tCO₂e/year avoided (ESTIMATED). ~30,000 m³/yr water recovery (ESTIMATED). ~45 MWh/day energy output (ESTIMATED). ~182,500 TPY diverted from South Dade Landfill — equivalent to ~3–5 years additional landfill life. PFAS compliance liability transfers from County to Carbotura operational responsibility.

§8.4 — Structural Net Effects

State B eliminates the County's capital obligation for new disposal infrastructure at the Phase Initial scale ($305M BOO vs. $556M new landfill or $1.5B–$1.9B new WTE). State B provides 30-year cost certainty through a fixed-escalator TMC Fee — compared to State A's open-ended cost trajectory under a WTE contract at $105/ton +2.5%/yr. State B transfers operational, environmental, and residual stream risk to Carbotura. State B inverts the balance sheet character of the waste stream — converting an open-ended disposal liability into a net income position from Year 2, with Circular Royalty cashflows compounding for 30 years.

§8.5 — Unresolved Data Gaps§8.5 — Brechas de Datos No Resueltas

Appendix A — Sources and MethodologyApéndice A — Fuentes y Metodología

Appendix B — Glossary AdditionsApéndice B — Adiciones al Glosario

Appendix C — Evidence ChainApéndice C — Cadena de Evidencia