Miami-Dade County
Economic Impact ReportCondado de Miami-Dade
Informe de Impacto Económico

§1.1 — What This Report MeasuresQué Mide Este Informe

This report quantifies the fiscal, economic, and environmental delta between two states: State A (current system — the ZWMP's own terminal residual continuing to contracted landfills at $92.78/ton, no thermal disposal, converging landfill capacity) and State B (Circular Advantage deployment — ACM facility receiving the residual stream at $88.00/ton Beneficiation Fee under a perpetual CSA, with Circular Royalty™ payments beginning 13 months after the first Beneficiation Fee payment). Neither state is re-diagnosed here. State A values originate in the Feedstock System Assessment. State B values originate exclusively in the Proposal EIR Input Block.

§1.2 — Decision Summary TableTabla de Resumen de Decisión

§1.3 — Fiscal vs. Regional Economic SeparationSeparación Fiscal vs. Económica Regional

§2.1 — Feedstock Volume and DispositionVolumen y Disposición de Materiales

§2.2 — State A Cost StructureEstructura de Costos Estado A

§2.3 — State A Cost TrajectoryTrayectoria de Costos Estado A

Two documented pressures operate simultaneously in State A: (1) Out-of-county export dependence — every ton routed to Okeechobee, JED/St. Cloud, Heart of Florida, or Broward processing carries undisclosed and likely escalating rates. (2) Capacity constraint — North Dade Landfill reaches capacity in 2030 and South Dade in 2032, both within the ZWMP's own 13-year implementation horizon; full dependency shifts to out-of-county export as in-county capacity closes.

§2.4 — State A Environmental and Structural Position

State A generates approximately 827,000 tCO₂e/year from landfilling the terminal residual (ESTIMATED — methane generation basis, scaled to ≈3,237 TPD). No WTE facility processes this residual; zero energy-from-waste recovery exists for it. South Dade Landfill sits adjacent to Biscayne Bay; closure in 2032 creates leachate management obligations. No alternative technology pathway exists for the residual in State A without a new procurement commitment.El Estado A genera aproximadamente 827,000 tCO₂e/año del relleno del residual terminal.

§3.1 — Inherited Flags (State B)

All State B values originate in the Proposal EIR Input Block. No values in this section were independently derived. Beneficiation Fee ($88.00/ton) is ESTIMATED anchored to VERIFIED FWDC. Phase configuration (500/2,000/6,000 TPD) uses Carbotura standard module math. Royalty formula is locked. Timeline is Carbotura standard from T0 = Q2 2026.

§3.2 — Deployment Configuration

§3.3 — Economic Terms

§3.4 — Residual Obligations

All residual material handling, process ash disposal, and environmental compliance at the ACM facility are Carbotura's operational responsibility under the BOO structure. The County has no residual stream liability. The County's obligations are limited to: (1) delivering contracted feedstock volumes, (2) paying the Beneficiation Fee per ton delivered, and (3) site access and permitting cooperation.

§3.5 — Timeline Anchoring

T0 = Q2 2026 (Carbotura standard, no project-specific T0 confirmed). Phase Initial COD: Q2 2028. First Circular Royalty™ payment: Q3 2029 (13 months after Phase Initial COD). All dates are on Carbotura standard deployment schedule and subject to revision upon Deployment Study completion.

§3.6 — Phase Delta Map

The map below shows the State A infrastructure (current system — landfills, transfer stations, WWTPs marked in steel/grey tones) against the State B ACM Priority 1 candidate site (Emerald square — P1 West Dade Industrial Corridor).

§4.1 — Three Delta Components

1. Gross cost displacement: The difference between the State A FWDC ($92.78/ton) and the State B Beneficiation Fee ($88.00/ton) = $4.78/ton. This is a verified financial delta — FWDC is published government data; Beneficiation Fee is ESTIMATED anchored to that data. Gross cost displacement applies from Phase Initial COD (Q2 2028). At Phase Initial (500 TPD): $872,350/year.
2. Circular Royalty™ cash flow: Cash payments from Carbotura to Miami-Dade County beginning Month 14 (Q3 2029). Year 2 rate: $105.60/ton on 182,500 TPY = $19.27M/year — a separate transaction from the $90.20/ton ($16.46M/yr) Beneficiation Fee paid the same year. Royalty exceeds Beneficiation Fee on a per-ton basis from Month 14 (Phase Initial).
3. Residual obligation: Zero — all ACM residual material handling is Carbotura's operational responsibility under the BOO structure. The County has no residual stream cost exposure in State B.

§4.1 — Phase-by-Phase Comparative Table

§4.4 — 30-Year Gross Cost Displacement (Phase Initial 500 TPD)

§4.5 — 30-Year Circular Royalty™ Table (Phase Initial 500 TPD)

§4.5 — State B Fiscal Position — Three Gross Items, Years 1–20Posición Fiscal Estado B — Tres Elementos Brutos, Años 1–20

Same three independent gross datasets as the Proposal chart — using identical Registry values. State A comparison baseline is the FWDC (avoided disposal cost). Year 1 shows cost-only; royalty begins Month 14.Los mismos tres conjuntos de datos brutos independientes que el gráfico de la Propuesta — usando valores idénticos del registro. La línea base de comparación del Estado A es el CFRD. El Año 1 muestra solo costos; la regalía comienza en el Mes 14.

Phase Cost Comparison — State A vs. State B (Year 1)

Chart — State A (Steel) vs. State B (Emerald) Year 1 TMC obligations by phase | Source: FWDC VERIFIED · Beneficiation Fee ESTIMATED · All ESTIMATED except FWDC comparator

§5.1 — Employment DeltaDelta de Empleo

§5.2 — Environmental Delta

§5.3 — PFAS Structural Delta

State A routes PFAS-bearing MSW and biosolids to landfills and long-haul disposal — generating PFAS leachate risk at South Dade Landfill (adjacent to Biscayne Bay) and transportation exposure through North Florida trucking. State B routes PFAS-bearing streams through the ACM process, which is designed to process PFAS-contaminated feedstocks. Regulatory exposure under evolving FDEP/EPA PFAS rules shifts from County liability to Carbotura's operational compliance responsibility under the BOO structure.

§5.4 — No-Fallback Analysis

If no residual-conversion engagement is initiated, State A has one trajectory: increasing dependency on out-of-county export (Okeechobee, JED/St. Cloud, Heart of Florida, Broward) at undisclosed, likely escalating rates as in-county capacity (North Dade full 2030, South Dade full 2032) is exhausted. This trajectory includes no Circular Royalty™ return mechanism and no zero-capex structure — new capacity or continued export both require cost the County does not control. There is no cost-ceiling alternative in State A.

§6.1 — Risk Register

§6.2 — Feedstock Variability ±20%

§6.3 — FWDC Sensitivity — Sign-Change Threshold

The Beneficiation Fee of $88.00/ton delivers a gross cost saving whenever FWDC > $88.00/ton. The current FWDC is $92.78/ton — $4.78 above the Beneficiation Fee. The sign-change threshold for gross cost displacement is FWDC = $88.00/ton. The royalty rate starts at 120% and escalates +1pp/year; it never falls below 100% under the locked formula.

§6.4 — Royalty Escalator Sensitivity

§6.5 — Timeline Slippage

A 6-month T0 delay (T0 = Q4 2026 instead of Q2 2026) shifts Phase Initial COD to Q4 2028 and first royalty payment to Q4 2029. The 30-year fiscal profile is unchanged — the calendar shifts but the economics are identical. The material risk from timeline slippage is ZWMP adoption without the residual-conversion layer — if the plan is formally adopted before the Joint Working Group phase is authorized, the layer must be negotiated separately rather than written into the plan. The decision risk is plan-adoption timing, not construction timing.

§7.1 — Binding Constraints

1. ZWMP public-comment / pre-adoption window (primary): The draft plan (dated July 2026) has not yet been formally adopted by the Board of County Commissioners. This is the only window in which the residual-conversion layer can be written into the plan itself, rather than negotiated separately after adoption.
2. South Dade Landfill capacity (full 2032) and North Dade (full 2030): Both fall within the ZWMP's own 13-year implementation horizon. This is a fixed constraint independent of how successfully the County executes its own diversion strategies.
3. Florida solid waste concurrency requirement: The county must demonstrate disposal capacity before issuing development permits — creating institutional pressure for a long-term residual-disposal commitment regardless of diversion performance.

§7.2 — Decision Window Table

§7.3 — Why the Pre-Adoption Window Matters

§7.4 — Optionality Matrix

No new figures are introduced in this section. All values trace to preceding sections.

§8.1 — Fiscal Effects, Reported Separately

§8.2 — Regional Economic Effects

Phase Initial: ~175 direct FTE / ~280 indirect jobs / ~$140M/yr economic impact (all ESTIMATED). Phase Expanded: ~1,750 direct FTE / ~2,800 indirect jobs / ~$1.6B/yr economic impact (all ESTIMATED). State A generates no equivalent economic activity — the county's current disposal system routes waste and cost to private out-of-county operators.

§8.3 — Environmental Effects

Phase Initial: ~315,000 tCO₂e/year avoided (ESTIMATED). ~30,000 m³/yr water recovery (ESTIMATED). ~45 MWh/day energy output (ESTIMATED). ~182,500 TPY diverted from South Dade Landfill — equivalent to ~3–5 years additional landfill life. PFAS compliance liability transfers from County to Carbotura operational responsibility.

§8.4 — Structural Effects

State B eliminates the County's capital obligation for new disposal infrastructure at the Phase Initial scale ($305M BOO vs. $556M+ new landfill capacity). State B provides 30-year cost certainty through a fixed-escalator Beneficiation Fee — compared to State A's undisclosed and likely escalating out-of-county export rates. State B transfers operational, environmental, and residual stream risk to Carbotura. State B inverts the balance sheet character of the residual stream — replacing an open-ended disposal liability with a Circular Royalty™ stream from Year 2, with Circular Royalty™ cashflows compounding for the life of the CSA.

§8.5 — Unresolved Data Gaps§8.5 — Brechas de Datos No Resueltas